El Niño Tests Mindanao's River-Fed Power and Davao City's Water as Utilities Prepare for a Dry 2027

By Kaeleb Savon Heck

DAVAO DEL NORTE, Nov. 13, 2026 — Power companies, the grid operator and Davao City's water utility are getting ready for a dry stretch that could last well into next year, as a very strong El Niño threatens the rivers that keep Mindanao's lights on and Davao City's taps running.

At a power forum in Davao City on Nov. 10, a hydropower executive said generation, not the grid or the local distributor, is where trouble would start if the dry spell bites. Davao Light and Power Co. said it has about 60 megawatts of big customers who can switch to their own generators to free up supply. The same week, city officials told residents there is no need to hoard water, while the Davao City Water District warned that some homes could still see low pressure or brief interruptions if river-fed deliveries drop by half.

The message from both sectors is the same: there is no shortage today, but the region leans heavily on rivers, and the weather bureau expects the dry conditions to peak around the end of 2026 and possibly last through the first half of 2027.

Why hydropower is the weak point

Mindanao gets a large share of its electricity from rivers. According to the Department of Energy's 2025 power statistics, cited by SunStar Davao, the island had 4,718 megawatts of installed generating capacity last year. Coal made up 2,268 megawatts, or 48.1 percent. Renewable sources added 1,493 megawatts, or 31.6 percent, and hydropower alone accounted for 1,223 megawatts.

The share is even more striking in actual output. Coal plants produced 63.8 percent of Mindanao's gross generation in 2025, renewables 35.3 percent, and hydropower by itself 29.6 percent. In other words, nearly three of every ten kilowatt-hours on the island last year came from moving water.

That is the exposure El Niño creates. Less rain means lower river levels and reservoirs, and that limits how much hydro plants can run. Hotter weather at the same time pushes up demand for fans, air conditioning and refrigeration.

Energy Secretary Sharon Garin has said the Department of Energy estimates El Niño could cut hydropower generation by at least 60 percent, and that extreme heat could also affect the operation of some power plants, SunStar Davao reported.

What the power sector said in Davao

The warnings came at the PowerForward Mindanao forum, held on Nov. 10 at Aria Hotel and Residences in Davao City, where speakers from generation, transmission and distribution discussed how ready the region is.

Leo Lungay, vice president for operations and maintenance of the Hydro Group of Aboitiz Renewables Inc., was blunt about where the risk sits. "If ever there's a problem, we cannot blame it on distribution, we cannot blame it on transmission; it would be on the generation side, especially for renewables, particularly in hydro," he said, according to SunStar Davao.

Lungay said generators are trying to keep plants available whenever water allows and are timing maintenance so that outages for repairs do not pile up. "The grid will not be heavily affected if one power plant does its maintenance work," he said.

For the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines, the selling point is the shape of the network. Garri Mikhail Yu, NGCP's transmission planning manager, said the Mindanao grid has a loop configuration. "Meaning, if one section of the transmission line is cut or on an outage, there will be another supply coming from the other side," he said. He also pointed to Mindanao's first static synchronous compensator, a voltage-control device installed in the Zamboanga Peninsula. Yu noted that the loop design helps keep power moving during a line outage, but it does not guarantee every area is immune to interruptions.

Davao Light's backup plan

On the distribution side, Davao Light is looking at its Interruptible Load Program. Under that program, large commercial and industrial customers agree to run on their own generator sets when supply is tight, which frees grid power for homes and smaller businesses. Under the Energy Regulatory Commission's rules, participating customers can be paid for making their generators available.

"Right now, I think we have an ILP total of 60 megawatts," said Enriczar Tia, Davao Light's president and general manager. He estimated that this could equal roughly 15 to 20 percent of the utility's demand.

Tia also tried to calm nerves. "Davao City needs not worry at this time," he said, adding that preparations are continuing. He cautioned, though, that demand management does not replace enough generation and reliable transmission.

The water side: enough supply, but pressure could drop

Davao City's water picture looks comfortable on paper, with one big caveat.

Figures presented by the Davao City Water District on Nov. 4 and reported by WWC One Media show about 688,000 cubic meters of water available per day. About 300,000 cubic meters is surface water from the bulk supplier Apo Agua Infrastructura Inc., which draws from the Tamugan River system, and about 388,000 cubic meters comes from groundwater. The district says it needs about 381,000 cubic meters a day for its roughly 280,000 service connections, which leaves a buffer of around 300,000 cubic meters, mostly from wells.

At the Pulong-Pulong sa Dabawenyos media forum on Nov. 10, Councilor Temujin "Tek" Ocampo said river levels had dropped but remained manageable, with Apo Agua still producing more than 300 million liters a day. "We still have enough water to supply the city with the impending El Niño," he said, as reported by SunStar Davao and cited by WWC One Media. Officials urged residents not to panic-buy or stockpile.

The caveat is in the district's contingency planning. DCWD spokesperson Jovana Cresta Duhaylungsod explained that surface water is more vulnerable to heat and evaporation than groundwater. If Apo Agua keeps delivering about 300,000 cubic meters a day, the district says it can run normally. If deliveries fall to about 150,000 cubic meters a day, some areas could start to see low water pressure or temporary interruptions, especially at peak hours. The worst case in its plan, a complete stop in surface-water deliveries, is classified as Level 7; groundwater would still help, but the district says customers should not expect the same uninterrupted 24-hour service.

There are signs the river has already been under strain this year. SunStar Davao reported in October that the district had logged about 77 instances of reduced flow in the Tamugan River since January, with the lowest production in April at about 233,000 cubic meters. Customers mostly did not feel it because groundwater filled the gap. The district has also said it is preparing to install 24 inline booster pumps in elevated and hard-to-reach areas, according to WWC One Media.

The forecast behind it all

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, known as PAGASA, said in its Nov. 4 advisory that a very strong El Niño is already present in the tropical Pacific and could last until the first half of 2027, possibly peaking toward the end of 2026. It forecast below-normal to way-below-normal rainfall in most areas in November, with warmer-than-average temperatures.

PAGASA reported that in October, five provinces had meteorological drought, 11 were under dry spell conditions and 10 had dry conditions, according to SunStar Davao.

Parts of the Davao Region are already feeling it. In Manay, Davao Oriental, the local government has used fire trucks to deliver water to residents, according to a Nov. 4 briefing by Office of Civil Defense-Davao Regional Director Ednar Dayanghirang, as reported by WWC One Media.

Analysis: a region that is ready on paper

Both the power and water sectors in Davao are saying roughly the same thing. They have buffers, they have plans, and today's supply is fine. Both also admit that the buffers have limits.

On power, the 60 megawatts of interruptible load is a real tool, but it only helps when a shortfall is modest. If the Energy Department's estimate of at least a 60 percent drop in hydro output came true across Mindanao, the gap would be measured in hundreds of megawatts island-wide, and coal and other plants would have to carry far more of the load. Lungay's comment that any problem would show up on the generation side is a useful reminder that a loop-shaped grid cannot deliver power that was never generated.

On water, Davao City is in a better spot than many towns because it has a large groundwater supply alongside the river. But the district's own threshold, about 150,000 cubic meters a day from Apo Agua, is only half of current deliveries. And moving water uphill to elevated barangays depends on pressure, which is why the booster pumps matter as much as the total volume.

For households, especially people with disabilities, older residents and anyone who depends on powered medical equipment or a refrigerator for medicine, even short power or water interruptions can be serious. Those families have the most reason to follow official advisories closely and to keep a modest, safe emergency supply, rather than wait for an outage to plan.

What's next

• PAGASA updates: Watch the weather bureau's monthly El Niño advisories for any change in how long the dry spell is expected to last and when it peaks.
• Hydro output: Any sign that Mindanao hydro plants are cutting generation, and how the grid operator responds, will be the first real test.
• Interruptible load activation: If Davao Light calls on its 60 megawatts of interruptible customers, that will signal supply is tightening.
• Apo Agua deliveries: The key water number to watch is whether daily surface-water deliveries stay near 300,000 cubic meters or fall toward the 150,000 mark.
• Official notices: Officials ask residents to rely on DCWD, Davao Light, barangay and city government advisories, not unverified posts about outages or rationing.

Sources

• SunStar Davao, "El Niño puts Mindanao power supply to the test": https://www.sunstar.com.ph/davao/el-ni%C3%B1o-puts-mindanao-power-supply-to-the-test
• WWC One Media, "Davao City Says There Is No Need to Hoard Water Despite Super El Niño — But Could Falling River Levels Still Leave Some Homes With Dry Taps?": https://wwconemedia.com/davao-city-says-there-is-no-need-to-hoard-water-despite-super-el-nino-but-could-falling-river-levels-still-leave-some-homes-with-dry-taps/